As I mentioned in my last post, I'm 61-42 this year in picking games. I'm on fire. Better than all the dudes at the New York Post so far this season. And in the pigskin pick em pool on ESPN I'm in the 95% percentile. I have to tell you I've never been in the 95% percentile for anything in my life.
So probably going to jinx this week by writing out my picks and providing reasoning but here it goes.
Detroit Lions (-3.5) vs St Louis Rams - Picking the Lions even though I've done well betting against them this year. (I thought they would cover the Vikings and not cover the Steelers. Lost those two.) I heard Tom Kowalski of Booth Newspapers say on the radio that the line on this game opened at 9.5. That is crazy and I think bad information. You just can't trust journalists anymore. Especially once they have a blog. Even 3.5 points is a lot but I want and need the Lions to win big. Breakout performance by Matthew Stafford. Forward down the field. Touchdowns. Lions Victory!
Buffalo Bills (+3.5) vs Houston Texans - If there is one team I can not figure out it's the Houston Texans. They won last week but didn't cover despite being up 21-0 at the half. The Bills have been coming through for me although they do not look pretty. That game with Carolina was ugly. God Carolina sucks. Just a lot of bad football. This is the only game this weekend where the home team is an underdog. I hope the weather is bad. Gonna riding the bison for one more weekend. And the Texans are a lose one win one team so if that streak continues they lose here.
Chicago Bears (-13.5) vs. Cleveland Browns - The spread is large but if I've learned one thing this season, no matter how large the spread, never bet on a crappy team to cover. It rarely happens. (Of course, when it does, so so satisfying.) I just hope Jay Cutler will continue to prove his fraudulence as a NFL quarterback the following week.
Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks - I had the Boys losing to Atlanta last week but for the first time this season they actually looked good. Seattle may be a really bad team.
Indianapolis Colts (-12.5) vs San Francisco 49ers - One of my rules is never bet against the Patroits even if the other team is getting 50 points (which they would have covered 2 weeks ago against the Titans.) This goes double for the Colts especially this season. Especially at home. 49ers do have a tough physical defense so this could be a lower scoring affair.
New York Jets (-3.5) vs. Miami Dolphins - This is a toughie. I want to pick Miami but these teams already played this season and I don't think Miami is good enough to take both games. There is no way Chad Henne plays as well as he did in the previous game. But the Jets did lose to the Bills at home two weeks ago. And I've been doing well betting against the Jets though one of my more misguided picks of the season was thinking the Jets would beat the Saints in New Orleans. For this game and my strategy for this week, pick the team that lost the earlier meeting.
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) vs. Denver Broncos - Baltimore is due for a win (lost three straight) and Denver is about ready for a loss (6-0).
New York Giants (+2.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles - Giants you screwed me last week. Fool me once...Fool me twice and I won't get fooled again.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) vs. Tennessee Titans - I don't know and I don't care. But I do have to pick one of the teams. It'll be interesting to see how Vince Young does as a starter.
San Diego Chargers (-16.5) vs. Oakland Raiders - This spread is horrific and I'm always on the wrong end of these Raiders point spreads. (How do they beat the Eagles and then get blow out by the Jets.) And San Diego killed me last week with their blow out of the Chiefs. I could go either way here. The Chargers did win the first meeting so my strategy was to pick the team that lost the earlier meeting. But rules are made to be broken.
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings - The biggest game of all times featuring the homecoming of prodigal son Brett Farve, the gun-slinger to Lambeau Field. Packers lost in Minnesota earlier this year so the rule is the Vikings don't beat the Packers twice . Of course Farve could turn in one of his legendary performances on the not quite cold enough to be frozen yet tundra. Green Bay needs to beat him for their fans (and their GM.) I did well betting against the Viking last week. Though the Minny D did look tough as the Steelers got two defensive touchdowns. Still...going with the Packers...
Arizona Cardinals (-9.5) vs. Carolina Panthers - The Cardinals appear to be back to their Super Bowl losing form and Carolina is just pathetic. This is a lock. But of course the Cardinals will come out and play like shit.
New Orleans Saints (-9.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons - Never bet against the Patriots, the Colts and maybe you can add the Saints here. Large spread but we've seen how New Orleans can put up 40+ on anybody. So that means the Falcons have to score 30+ on an under-rated Saints defense. I'm on the Saints bandwagon until the wheels fall off.
I picked three underdogs this week (NY Giants, Buffalo and Jacksonville.) And Jacksonville is getting points against an 0-6 team. That has to piss them off.
Friday, October 30, 2009
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Still Looking Good for those 4 Victories
Hey everybody. Or the one person that follows this blog according to my blogger dashboard. The last time I checked in with you (all?) I said the Lions would win 4 games. With all the defensive pickups I said show me the money before any bold predictions of 8 wins. (I'm sort of glad Mlive ruined their comments threads by making them 10 per page. I waste a lot less time with the delusional and the misinformed.) And I'm won't gloat and say I told you so because I wish nothing more than a return to mediocrity for the Lions. But maybe next year. Or next decade. Which at this point is kind of the same thing.
In the meanwhile, the Lions come off their bye week with a 1-5 record. And that's progress. Best of all we face the St. Louis Rams who are shaping up to take the Lions crown as one of the most futile football teams of the modern era. The last time the Rams won Dubya was president and Obama had not yet won the election. What can you say. Hopeless cities. Hopeless football.
But there is hope for the Lions. Right now one of the biggest concerns in my life is the status of Matthew Stafford's knee. What can I say, I like this kid and he is far superior than Daunte Culpepper. Remember when that was a controversey? Yes the salad days of early September. I was lucky enough to attend the Lions/Bears game at Soldier Field earlier this month and that was a great first half he put together. When he hobbled to the sidelines with the knee injury I couldn't help but think of course. Just as he was about to have his break out game. That is so Lions. Finally a glimmer than just a gigantic punch to the gut.
But the rest of the team still sucks. Our pass defense is historically bad, breaking records year after year for futility. All I can say is we must not only beat the Rams but blow them out. Let's get up two touchdowns early and then put our boots on their throat. Even if we win this game but it goes down to the last play like the Redskins's game. that will be disappointing. I'm looking for a breakout game. In other words, I'm looking for disappointment.
In better news, I'm doing a pigskin pick em on ESPN and have a 61-42 record against the spread through 7 weeks. This is somewhat impressive but picking the games is a pretty easy this year. Just pick the favorites to cover. No matter how many points the other teams is getting. Always bet the Patriots. (though they didn't cover at Denver.) And against Carolina if they are 9.5 point favorites. They are godawful And the Saints are my team this year. That comeback last week against Miami made them very popular in Vegas.
In the meanwhile, the Lions come off their bye week with a 1-5 record. And that's progress. Best of all we face the St. Louis Rams who are shaping up to take the Lions crown as one of the most futile football teams of the modern era. The last time the Rams won Dubya was president and Obama had not yet won the election. What can you say. Hopeless cities. Hopeless football.
But there is hope for the Lions. Right now one of the biggest concerns in my life is the status of Matthew Stafford's knee. What can I say, I like this kid and he is far superior than Daunte Culpepper. Remember when that was a controversey? Yes the salad days of early September. I was lucky enough to attend the Lions/Bears game at Soldier Field earlier this month and that was a great first half he put together. When he hobbled to the sidelines with the knee injury I couldn't help but think of course. Just as he was about to have his break out game. That is so Lions. Finally a glimmer than just a gigantic punch to the gut.
But the rest of the team still sucks. Our pass defense is historically bad, breaking records year after year for futility. All I can say is we must not only beat the Rams but blow them out. Let's get up two touchdowns early and then put our boots on their throat. Even if we win this game but it goes down to the last play like the Redskins's game. that will be disappointing. I'm looking for a breakout game. In other words, I'm looking for disappointment.
In better news, I'm doing a pigskin pick em on ESPN and have a 61-42 record against the spread through 7 weeks. This is somewhat impressive but picking the games is a pretty easy this year. Just pick the favorites to cover. No matter how many points the other teams is getting. Always bet the Patriots. (though they didn't cover at Denver.) And against Carolina if they are 9.5 point favorites. They are godawful And the Saints are my team this year. That comeback last week against Miami made them very popular in Vegas.
Friday, September 11, 2009
Lions Win Total Prediction - 4 Wins!!!
This is a really stupid exercise that before the start of every new season people want to predict how many games the Lions might win. There are many unknowns with this team that makes it difficult.
Some people are wildly optimistic, thinking with all the new blood they will win as many as 8 or nine games. I am not in this camp. I don't know how you could think such thoughts after last year's disaster. Their arguments run along the lines that the Lions defense is all-new (only two starters remain) so they will be a lot better. But how can we know if these guys are any better? You need to show me. An that can't happen until we play some real ball this Sunday.
I'm in the 'show me the money' camp. Our defense was awful last year and even though much of it has been replaced, I'm not too sure these guys are going to completely turn it around so quickly.
Some people are wildly optimistic, thinking with all the new blood they will win as many as 8 or nine games. I am not in this camp. I don't know how you could think such thoughts after last year's disaster. Their arguments run along the lines that the Lions defense is all-new (only two starters remain) so they will be a lot better. But how can we know if these guys are any better? You need to show me. An that can't happen until we play some real ball this Sunday.
I'm in the 'show me the money' camp. Our defense was awful last year and even though much of it has been replaced, I'm not too sure these guys are going to completely turn it around so quickly.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Lions Week 1: The New Orleans Saints
It's been a long long time coming. This football off-season took many years or at least it felt like it. I guess that's what happens when your team becomes the first to go winless for sixteen weeks. (The losing streak is now at 17 games.)
And just what happened during the off-season, not a whole lot. Just a new general manager, a new head coach, a new rookie quarterback and 32 new players on the roster not even to mention a new logo.
Even after all that, the Lions still should be pretty bad. This season will actually be considered successful if the Lions win four or five games and just show improvement and some way out of their horrible condition.
The NFL did them no favors with their schedule. And first up is the New Orleans Saints, the #1 passing offense against the absolute worst pass defense. This will be trouble.
I just hope for something competitive and something watchable, which is asking a lot when it comes to the Detroit Lions.
My prediction, no clue: New Orleans 38, Lions 24.
And just what happened during the off-season, not a whole lot. Just a new general manager, a new head coach, a new rookie quarterback and 32 new players on the roster not even to mention a new logo.
Even after all that, the Lions still should be pretty bad. This season will actually be considered successful if the Lions win four or five games and just show improvement and some way out of their horrible condition.
The NFL did them no favors with their schedule. And first up is the New Orleans Saints, the #1 passing offense against the absolute worst pass defense. This will be trouble.
I just hope for something competitive and something watchable, which is asking a lot when it comes to the Detroit Lions.
My prediction, no clue: New Orleans 38, Lions 24.
Looks Like They'll Make It (After All)
The Tigers are looking strong as they finish up the last month of the EXTREMELY long baseball season. I must admit, I didn't think they would pull it out. This team is pretty flawed. (Spotty hitting and nail biting relief pitching, among them.) But so are the other teams in their division. Although the Twins are still down there at 5 and half games out. We've got our magic number. 19. Like Steve Yzerman. Go Tigers.
Monday, July 27, 2009
Tigers Still #1 (in the AL Central)
(NOTE: It's now August 19th and I need to update my blog but as long as the Tigers continue to be in first place in the Central division the headline is still relevant.)
I'm like that book from a while back, the Underminer, the best friend who casually destroys your life.
And that life is the Detroit Tigers. (Not that anybody on their team or fans care what I think.) I fully expected them to fold their tents for the year and give the White Sox first place after their series this past weekend. While the Tiger hitters seemed to see my way of things, the pitchers kept them in the game and they did get some timely hits. So we will have to wait a bit longer for them to have that big season blow out, so I can say I told you so.
It's pretty bad the Tigers don't have a decent corner outfielder after dumping Gary Sheffeld and still paying him $15 million dollars to go away. And that makes it unlikely they will make the trade necessary at the deadline to stay in the pennant race.
I'm like that book from a while back, the Underminer, the best friend who casually destroys your life.
And that life is the Detroit Tigers. (Not that anybody on their team or fans care what I think.) I fully expected them to fold their tents for the year and give the White Sox first place after their series this past weekend. While the Tiger hitters seemed to see my way of things, the pitchers kept them in the game and they did get some timely hits. So we will have to wait a bit longer for them to have that big season blow out, so I can say I told you so.
It's pretty bad the Tigers don't have a decent corner outfielder after dumping Gary Sheffeld and still paying him $15 million dollars to go away. And that makes it unlikely they will make the trade necessary at the deadline to stay in the pennant race.
Friday, July 17, 2009
Summertime Sports Blues
Summer. Where the living is good and the sports are boring.
I'm just not that into the Detroit Tigers even though they are in first place after the all-star break. I'll be the last one on this bandwagon and I fully expect them to have some sort of collapse come August or early September. Although the other teams in the Central division are so atrocious that they just might hang on. And if they do, we can look forward to the top team in baseball (the Red Sox, the Yankess, the Devil Rays?) beating our brains in a five game series and then we'll be done. I know I'm fixated on the destination more than the journey, but I am a crotchety when it comes to baseball and the Tigers. How I loved it when I was a kid and now the old stadium finally torn down this year and all my baseball cards somewhere in the parent's attic and just this nostalgia that will not be satiated by the current MLB product.
Then there's the Pistons, who are a little hard to figure out. We cleared all that cap space and let our veterans move on to sign Ben Gordon and Charles Villanueva? Then word gets out that the cap number for 2010 will be around $52 million which means we have $27 million tied up in 2 shooting guards (Rip + Ben) and an undersized big man (Villa). Given that this cap space was the reason for blowing the team up mid-season last year, the reality did not live up to this fan's expectations. The NBA should be more exciting next year for a few of the top teams that added talent but the Pistons will not be one of these teams but a work in progress. They may make the playoffs only because they just have a lot of bad pro basketball teams in the NBA Eastern Conference.
And can't help myself but looking forward to the Lions breaking camp later this month. Will the Lion's start a rookie quarterback? Will their defense be able to stop anybody? It will be exciting to win a game or two this year.
I'm just not that into the Detroit Tigers even though they are in first place after the all-star break. I'll be the last one on this bandwagon and I fully expect them to have some sort of collapse come August or early September. Although the other teams in the Central division are so atrocious that they just might hang on. And if they do, we can look forward to the top team in baseball (the Red Sox, the Yankess, the Devil Rays?) beating our brains in a five game series and then we'll be done. I know I'm fixated on the destination more than the journey, but I am a crotchety when it comes to baseball and the Tigers. How I loved it when I was a kid and now the old stadium finally torn down this year and all my baseball cards somewhere in the parent's attic and just this nostalgia that will not be satiated by the current MLB product.
Then there's the Pistons, who are a little hard to figure out. We cleared all that cap space and let our veterans move on to sign Ben Gordon and Charles Villanueva? Then word gets out that the cap number for 2010 will be around $52 million which means we have $27 million tied up in 2 shooting guards (Rip + Ben) and an undersized big man (Villa). Given that this cap space was the reason for blowing the team up mid-season last year, the reality did not live up to this fan's expectations. The NBA should be more exciting next year for a few of the top teams that added talent but the Pistons will not be one of these teams but a work in progress. They may make the playoffs only because they just have a lot of bad pro basketball teams in the NBA Eastern Conference.
And can't help myself but looking forward to the Lions breaking camp later this month. Will the Lion's start a rookie quarterback? Will their defense be able to stop anybody? It will be exciting to win a game or two this year.
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