What I Learned Today

For the Lions, 16.5 points is just not enough. After watching the game, I'm amazed they came as close as they did. They continue to be pathetic in all facets of the game with the offense becoming more and more hapless each game and the defense constantly surrendering the big play. The offense line was horrid. Our quarterback took a beating. On the other hand, the other bad teams perked up as the Redskins, Buccaneers, Chief and Rams all covered the spread and in the case of Chiefs (against Oakland - not a big deal) and Redskins (are the Bronco's done?) actually won their game.

My kicking myself pick of the week is undoubtedly taking the Jets against the Jaguars. As I wrote earlier, I am always on the wrong end of the Jets score. And I should have known they would not win today when the cover of the NY Post included a quote from their owner that the Jets would making the playoffs this year. After today's loss that is not going to happen. They're done. And I'm done taking this over-rated team.

The team of the week is the Bengals. They have now beat both the Steelers and the Ravens twice this year and are atop that division at 7-2. Always nice to see a once sad sack franchise claw themselves from the bottom.

I went 3-1 in the 4 o'clock games to salvage the week. I should have known the Packers would play well -- their season would have spiraled out of control with another loss -- and the Cowboys were due to come back to Earth.

New England and Baltimore come through and I'm looking at 9-6.

UPDATE: Awesome ending for the the Colts/Patriots games. The best of all possible worlds. The Colts win and the Pats cover. And Bill Belichick makes one of the most bizarre coaching decisions of all time.

Week 10 NFL Picks

Better late than never and better right than wrong. It's my week 10 NFL picks.

Before the games even start I'm up 1 for the week after picking San Francisco to beat the Bears. It was an ugly one but the 49ers (-3.5) just covered with a 10-6 victory.


Lions (+16.5) vs. Vikings - No chance the Lions win this one but 16 and half points is too good to pass up. When you are a Lions fan a cover is a victory.

New Orleans (-13.5) vs. Rams - Can't believe the Rams are getting less points than the Lions.

Dolphins (-9.5) vs. Tampa Bay - This is a lot of points for the Dolphins but it's always bad move to hope a pathetic team like the Bucs cover.

Jets (-6.5) vs. Jaguars - Jets have killed me this year. Always on the wrong end of the score with these guys. But going to keep on with the insanity.

Titans (-6.5) vs Bills - I did have a good run with the Bills but that is over. Even coming off that bye week, don't see it happening. Trent Edwards could potentially cause some problems with the Titans crap secondary. Risk I'm willing to take.

Bengals (+6.5) vs. Steelers - Taking the Bengals and the points here though I would feel better if I got the full touchdown. Statement game for the Bengals.

Broncos (-4.5) vs. Redskins - The Broncos get no respect so they better make it happen and big today.

Panthers (+1.5) vs. Falcons - One team on it's way up, the other one on their way down. Carolina plays tough in their division.

Chiefs (+1.5) vs. Raiders - Who knows. Who cares.

Chargers (-2.5) vs. Eagles - Another team (the Eagles_ where I am always on the wrong end of the score.

Arizona (-8.5) vs Seahawks - The Cardinals better show up to play. Seattle is such a beatable team.

Cowboys (-2.5) vs Packers - Are the Cowboys for real now? Packers have been playing horrible. Could be an upset. But probably not.

Patriots (+2.5) vs Colts - My rules include never bet against the Patriots or the Colts but do you do when they play each other? Take the team that is getting the points.

Ravens (-10.5) vs Browns - The Browns motto. "Hey at least we don't suck as bad the as the Lions." To which I would reply, "Yeah, how's that working out with Brady Quinn."

Halfway through the Season....This Won't Hurt a Bit

Well, the Lions are halfway through their 2009 season and things are not looking good (which is about normal.) Their 1-7 record now means the Lions are 2-30 in their last 32 games. This is one of the most pathetic runs in NFL History.

At the start of the season I predicted four victories, which I thought was being conservative but of course the Lions could not even meet these lowered expectations. They even had a chance to pull a victory against the nearly as hapless St. Louis Rams but came up on the wrong end of a 4th quarter touchdown.

So even though there has been improvement, it's been extremely incremental and it's why I loved this passage from the NY Times 5th Down Blog.

The Lions, like the real estate market, are improving so slowly that it takes detailed analysis to measure their advances. Last year they allowed 8.8 yards per pass attempt; this year it’s down to 7.9. Opponents averaged 5.1 yards per rush, but the Lions have shaved that figure to 4.8. Their third down percentage has risen from 28.8 percent to 39.6 percent. Quoting these modest improvements is like cheering a 0.05 percent gain in housing values while upside-down on a half-million dollar townhouse mortgage, but Lions fans and Realtors know that bottoming out is more a process than an event. The Lions face the Vikings and host the Browns after they leave Seattle. They’ll go 1-2 over this stretch.

Things I learned Today

1. Lions vs. Seahawks: A little less man love for Matthew Stafford after he screwed me on the spread with that last interception (his 5th of the day).
2. Falcons vs. Redskins: You can safely bet against the Washington Redskins all the time. They deserve to be grouped with those other one win teams. (Even though they have won 100% more games than they should have.)
3. Cardinals vs. Bears: The Chicago Bears defense is Detroit Lions bad. Can't stop anything.
4. Ravens vs. Bengals: The Ravens are the new Houston Texans. Never know what's going to happen with these guys.
5. Colts vs Texans: The Colts are conserving energy for a deep run. Just play good enough to win.
6. Patriots vs. Dolphins: The Patriots are money but a 10 1/2 point spread is a lot of points. They win by 10 and still don't cover the spread.
7. Chiefs vs. Jaguars: Jacksonville Jaguars are really bad. You can never go wrong betting against them. Even if you lose.
8. Titans vs. 49ers: The Titans are back and the 49ers and the Titans may end the season with the same record.
9. Saints vs. Panthers: The Saints can't blow out everybody. But they have beat everybody.
10. Giants vs. Chargers: The Giants and the Chargers are better than we thought they were. Or they just both looked good playing against each other.
11. Packers vs. Bucs: The Packers are now in an official tailspin. And there is not a win-less team anymore, just a bunch of teams with one win (Rams, Browns, Buccaneers, Chiefs, Lions.) The Lions will continue to be the only 0-16 team in NFL history. Thanks Green Bay.

Record so far 6-5.

Still up Eagles vs. Cowboys. I picked the Eagles but of course it'll be a Cowboys rout.

Steelers vs. Broncos. Steelers better come to play.

Hope to win one of these and come out of this weekend with a "winning" record.

Lions Game Day

Another beautiful fall Sunday that will most likely be partially wasted watching the Detroit Lions be the living embodiment of futility and hopelessness.

Okay, maybe there is hope. Which is all you really get with the Lions having lost 29 of their last 31. Witnessing many of these games, I can tell you that they will most likely lose and do so in one of three ways.

1. The Blowout

This was the Lions specialty last year when they would quickly fall behind 21-0 early in the game (sometimes halfway through the 1st quarter) and then be on the receiving end of some ungodly score like 55-21. Blowout scores more likely to be seen in the college football. I witnesses one of these blowouts in person and the Lions were going through the motions. Like a bunch of Zombies. The Lions really haven't had a game quite this bad this year so I think they are due.

2. Keeping it sort of close

The Lions fall behind but keep it pretty close, maybe two scores or less. It sometimes appears like they'll get back in the game but it never quite happens. They just can't make that play. And then the other team, sick of letting them stick around, scores an easy touchdown on offense, or maybe the Lions make a boneheaded special tams miscue, or throw an interception. This is usually against a good team that doesn't want to tire themselves out playing the Lions.

3. The inability to close a game.

The Lions appear to be in the game the whole way. Maybe they even hold a lead for a time. But it gets later in the 4th quarter and the other team wakes up, realizes that they are losing to the Lions and decide they really need a score. At this time, the Lions defense feels no similar sense of urgency to make a stop and the winning touchdown is surrendered. And the Lions lose once again.

My prediction today for the Seahawks? Obviously I'm hoping for a win but most likely it'll be a #2. I might even be a happy with a #3 performance. But my fear is we haven't had a #1 blow out in a while and we're due.

Week 9 NFL Picks

So I put the disaster of last week behind me, sucked it up and promised to make better picks this week. (And hopefully the teams that I do pick will also play better this week.)

Detroit Lions (+10.5) vs Seattle Seahawks - The Lions as usual a big underdog on the road. To be expected of a team that hasn't won anywhere in more than 2 years but I think this one may be close. Because with the Lions they either get blown out or lose in the 4th quarter. I think this game will be the latter. Don't know why. No valid reasons. Seattle is so up and down not really sure what it is going on with them.

Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) vs Chicago Bears - Even though I am still hurting from the hurt Carolina put on the Cardinals last Sunday I think they'll right things in Chicago. Plus Chicago is over rated and Jay Cutler has been a turnover machine.

Atlanta Falcons (-10.5) vs Washington Redskins - My hope with this game is Atlanta is mad after two straight losses and it will take it on the lowly Redskins.

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) vs Cincinnati Bengals - Getting scared now that I've taken three road teams to win or cover. But it's payback time for the Ravens. And even though it did not work out for me at all last week, picking the team that lost in the earlier division games is still my strategy.

Houston Texans (+9.5) vs. Indy Colts - Now getting real crazy. I had the Texans getting upset by the Bills last week and got killed. Anytime I pick the Texans they either lose or don't cover. Going to give them one more chance.

New England (-10.5) vs. Miami Dolphins - Going to ride the Patriots to another/win cover. This one is high. But the Patriots do like to run up the score.

Green Bay Packers (-10.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Speaking of which, the Packers like to run up the score and play well against the weak teams. And Tampa Bay is the weakest of them all.

Kansas City Chiefs (+6.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars - I know Kansas City is bad but didn't the Jaguars get blow out by the previously winless Titans last week. This is my upset pick I suppose.

Carolina Panthers (+14.5) vs. New Orleans Saints - This spread is insane. Divisional opponents. Hopefully the Panthers don't pass. And the Saint make mistakes and think 2 touchdowns is enough of a margin of victory.

San Diego Chargers (+4.5) vs. New York Giants - Oh how gamblers have been burned by the Giants this year. Please Phil Rivers west coast represent.

San Francisco (-4.5) vs. Tennessee Titans - The 49ers almost upset Indy on the road and then get this insulting spread for a home game with the one win Titans. Taking the Niners on principle alone.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys - Been doing well (for the most part) betting against Dallas this year. But they look much better now. Eagles need to win to get that stranglehold on their division.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) vs. Denver Broncos - Steelers are good but they do get lucky. The Broncos are good but not 7-1 good. More like 6-2 good.

Last Week: 3-10
Season: 64-52

So that happened.

Of course. I jinx it. This was the weekend I needed to pull a George Costanza. Do my homework, make my picks and then choose the opposing team. Because the funny thing is I might even make the same picks over again. I still don't know where I went wrong. The only one that still grates on me is picking the Jets over the Dolphins. I hate the Jets. And I like the Dolphins. And the Jets have now lost both their games to Miami this season. So I don't think Rex Ryan is going to be talking Super Bowl again anytime soon. I hope the NY writers turn up the temperature on this guy. And the other New York did even worse getting blow out by their Philadelphia rivals. The Eagles own the the Giants who are now obviously just not a good team. And It looks as though Dallas might be the team to win that division.

Of course the most painful games was the Detroit Lions. Anytime you feel you've bottomed out with the Lions something even more horrendous happens. If the Lions were going to win 4 games this year they needed to put the winless and hapless St. Louis Rams today. Now four wins in wishful thinking. In typical Lions fashion when the defense actually played good enough to win the game the offense couldn't do anything but commit penalties, drop passes and kill drives. And then we basically lose the game a fake field goal for chrissakes. A 54 yarder that even the Rams knew they could never make. But nobody thought to cover the guy heading towards the end zone.

I want to believe the Lions will get better. That their rookie quarterback is the guy, the their new coach is as smart as he seems and that they can start to win games they need to win. But in what had been called a "statement" game the Lions came up short. They looked bad and at times were unwatchable. The quarterback made bad throws and the coach was outcoached. Just not a lot of hope right now. But much like I need to forget about my 3-9 weekend (please New Orleans come through for me tomorrow) the Lions need to forget about this one. It's possible we can beat the Seahawks next week.