Friday, October 30, 2009

Week 8 NFL Picks

As I mentioned in my last post, I'm 61-42 this year in picking games. I'm on fire. Better than all the dudes at the New York Post so far this season. And in the pigskin pick em pool on ESPN I'm in the 95% percentile. I have to tell you I've never been in the 95% percentile for anything in my life.

So probably going to jinx this week by writing out my picks and providing reasoning but here it goes.

Detroit Lions (-3.5) vs St Louis Rams - Picking the Lions even though I've done well betting against them this year. (I thought they would cover the Vikings and not cover the Steelers. Lost those two.) I heard Tom Kowalski of Booth Newspapers say on the radio that the line on this game opened at 9.5. That is crazy and I think bad information. You just can't trust journalists anymore. Especially once they have a blog. Even 3.5 points is a lot but I want and need the Lions to win big. Breakout performance by Matthew Stafford. Forward down the field. Touchdowns. Lions Victory!

Buffalo Bills (+3.5) vs Houston Texans - If there is one team I can not figure out it's the Houston Texans. They won last week but didn't cover despite being up 21-0 at the half. The Bills have been coming through for me although they do not look pretty. That game with Carolina was ugly. God Carolina sucks. Just a lot of bad football. This is the only game this weekend where the home team is an underdog. I hope the weather is bad. Gonna riding the bison for one more weekend. And the Texans are a lose one win one team so if that streak continues they lose here.

Chicago Bears (-13.5) vs. Cleveland Browns - The spread is large but if I've learned one thing this season, no matter how large the spread, never bet on a crappy team to cover. It rarely happens. (Of course, when it does, so so satisfying.) I just hope Jay Cutler will continue to prove his fraudulence as a NFL quarterback the following week.

Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks - I had the Boys losing to Atlanta last week but for the first time this season they actually looked good. Seattle may be a really bad team.

Indianapolis Colts (-12.5) vs San Francisco 49ers
- One of my rules is never bet against the Patroits even if the other team is getting 50 points (which they would have covered 2 weeks ago against the Titans.) This goes double for the Colts especially this season. Especially at home. 49ers do have a tough physical defense so this could be a lower scoring affair.

New York Jets (-3.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
- This is a toughie. I want to pick Miami but these teams already played this season and I don't think Miami is good enough to take both games. There is no way Chad Henne plays as well as he did in the previous game. But the Jets did lose to the Bills at home two weeks ago. And I've been doing well betting against the Jets though one of my more misguided picks of the season was thinking the Jets would beat the Saints in New Orleans. For this game and my strategy for this week, pick the team that lost the earlier meeting.

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) vs. Denver Broncos - Baltimore is due for a win (lost three straight) and Denver is about ready for a loss (6-0).

New York Giants (+2.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- Giants you screwed me last week. Fool me once...Fool me twice and I won't get fooled again.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) vs. Tennessee Titans - I don't know and I don't care. But I do have to pick one of the teams. It'll be interesting to see how Vince Young does as a starter.

San Diego Chargers (-16.5) vs. Oakland Raiders - This spread is horrific and I'm always on the wrong end of these Raiders point spreads. (How do they beat the Eagles and then get blow out by the Jets.) And San Diego killed me last week with their blow out of the Chiefs. I could go either way here. The Chargers did win the first meeting so my strategy was to pick the team that lost the earlier meeting. But rules are made to be broken.

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings
- The biggest game of all times featuring the homecoming of prodigal son Brett Farve, the gun-slinger to Lambeau Field. Packers lost in Minnesota earlier this year so the rule is the Vikings don't beat the Packers twice . Of course Farve could turn in one of his legendary performances on the not quite cold enough to be frozen yet tundra. Green Bay needs to beat him for their fans (and their GM.) I did well betting against the Viking last week. Though the Minny D did look tough as the Steelers got two defensive touchdowns. Still...going with the Packers...

Arizona Cardinals (-9.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
- The Cardinals appear to be back to their Super Bowl losing form and Carolina is just pathetic. This is a lock. But of course the Cardinals will come out and play like shit.

New Orleans Saints (-9.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Never bet against the Patriots, the Colts and maybe you can add the Saints here. Large spread but we've seen how New Orleans can put up 40+ on anybody. So that means the Falcons have to score 30+ on an under-rated Saints defense. I'm on the Saints bandwagon until the wheels fall off.

I picked three underdogs this week (NY Giants, Buffalo and Jacksonville.) And Jacksonville is getting points against an 0-6 team. That has to piss them off.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Still Looking Good for those 4 Victories

Hey everybody. Or the one person that follows this blog according to my blogger dashboard. The last time I checked in with you (all?) I said the Lions would win 4 games. With all the defensive pickups I said show me the money before any bold predictions of 8 wins. (I'm sort of glad Mlive ruined their comments threads by making them 10 per page. I waste a lot less time with the delusional and the misinformed.) And I'm won't gloat and say I told you so because I wish nothing more than a return to mediocrity for the Lions. But maybe next year. Or next decade. Which at this point is kind of the same thing.

In the meanwhile, the Lions come off their bye week with a 1-5 record. And that's progress. Best of all we face the St. Louis Rams who are shaping up to take the Lions crown as one of the most futile football teams of the modern era. The last time the Rams won Dubya was president and Obama had not yet won the election. What can you say. Hopeless cities. Hopeless football.

But there is hope for the Lions. Right now one of the biggest concerns in my life is the status of Matthew Stafford's knee. What can I say, I like this kid and he is far superior than Daunte Culpepper. Remember when that was a controversey? Yes the salad days of early September. I was lucky enough to attend the Lions/Bears game at Soldier Field earlier this month and that was a great first half he put together. When he hobbled to the sidelines with the knee injury I couldn't help but think of course. Just as he was about to have his break out game. That is so Lions. Finally a glimmer than just a gigantic punch to the gut.

But the rest of the team still sucks. Our pass defense is historically bad, breaking records year after year for futility. All I can say is we must not only beat the Rams but blow them out. Let's get up two touchdowns early and then put our boots on their throat. Even if we win this game but it goes down to the last play like the Redskins's game. that will be disappointing. I'm looking for a breakout game. In other words, I'm looking for disappointment.

In better news, I'm doing a pigskin pick em on ESPN and have a 61-42 record against the spread through 7 weeks. This is somewhat impressive but picking the games is a pretty easy this year. Just pick the favorites to cover. No matter how many points the other teams is getting. Always bet the Patriots. (though they didn't cover at Denver.) And against Carolina if they are 9.5 point favorites. They are godawful And the Saints are my team this year. That comeback last week against Miami made them very popular in Vegas.