Friday, December 4, 2009

Lucky Week 13

This is the big week where I can cross the threshold of 100 games picked correctly and get closer to that magic .500% and over line of 128. However, I find myself down a game already because as per this season I was on the wrong end of picking the correct winner/line of the NY Jets game Thursday night. I thought the Bills would come through (after they let me down and beat the Dolphins this past Sunday) but the Jets were able to win the field goal contest (4-2) and grind out a 19-13 victory.

That's ok, I'll just have to think a little harder for my Sunday picks, which are:

Cincinnati Bengals (-13.5) vs. Detroit Lions - Quite the point spread against my beloved Lions but I know we're always capable of losing big. I think the Bengals are going to let Carson Palmer air it out even more than usual and should have a career day against the Lions secondary.

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) vs Atlanta Falcons - Back and forth on this game given the injuries to both teams. Impossible to predict how the Eagles will play from week to week. But they need to grind out a victory this week and Atlanta is without their starting quarterback and have a weak defense.

Chicago Bears (-8.5) vs St Louis Rams
- I've been picking the Rams the last couple weeks to cover and it's never come through. And with the over-rated toothless Bears on their schedule you would think's it's the week for them to do it. But I think Jay Cutler takes out the frustration of the whole season on the Rams and wins this one pretty easily.

Tennessee Titans (+ 6.5) vs Indianapolis Colts
- Finally going underdog with the Titans even if does violate my golden rule about never betting against Indy. Just want to keep the Titans winning streak alive and see Chris Johnson makes some spectacular runs.

Denver Broncos (-4.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs - Maybe in weeks past I'd go for the dog here, but Denver is a streaky team and they've had extra rest after their Thanksgiving night dismantling of the NY Giants.

New Orleans Saints (-8.5) vs Washington Redskins - Same deal here as for the dogs and the Redskins solid defense but the New Orleans appears to be on a mission this year and hopefully will be all business for this game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5) vs Carolina Panthers - One game I will not be watching. Carolina is tough to pick - for or against. But Tampa has been better in recent weeks in their covers and I expect them to come through against a divisional foe.

Houston Texans (+.5) vs Jacksonville Jaguars - What is up with these half point spreads. Just make them a pick em. Hope I get the Texans on a Sunday when they're on. (I now hypothesize that the half point spreads have something to do with the ESPN software not being able to handle straight up pick -em's)

Pittsburgh Steelers (-11.5) vs Oakland Raiders - Big point spread for a team like the Steelers but they seem angry and desperate. And the Raiders are terrible (even if they did come an endzone dropped pass from covering vs the Cowboys)

Miami Dolphins (+6.5) vs New England Patriots
- Normally I'd pick the Patriots coming off a big loss to blow out their next opponent but they got beat so bad on Monday night might be tough for them to come back.

San Diego Chargers (-12.5) vs Cleveland Browns - Could be trouble with a west coast team flying east to play in the cold but the Chargers are lighting it up lately and I'll stay with the team on a good run.

San Francisco 49ers (+.5) vs Seattle Seahawks - San Fran may be a ready for a late season run and I can't help but continue to think the Seahawks suck.

NY Giants (+1.5) vs Dallas Cowboys - Another game I've been back and forth on but the NY Giants are at home on a long rest and absolutely need to win and the Cowboys and Tony Romo, with a chance to put the Giants away, will choose the hard way.

Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) vs Arizona Cardinals - This is point spread must be wrong. The Vikings are on a roll right now and can score points. Could be a shoot out but I see the Vikings getting timely stops and pressure and sacks on Kurt Warner.

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) vs Baltimore Ravens - Packers another team on a good run and need to win this game to control their fortunes for a playoff spot.

Last Week: 8-8
Season: 96-80

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